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Sports betting arbitrage. Arbitrage betting involves the placing of wagers on a sporting event to make a profit, or at least make no loss, regardless of the event outcome. Sports betting arbitrage opportunities typically arise when two or more bookmakers offer disparate odds. Note that an arbitrage. Sports betting has been legal for a couple of months in my state. I’ve been making a pretty good profit through a lot of arbitrage, which is basically betting for a guaranteed profit. For example, one.

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TheWalrus
LSU Fan
Somewhere
Member since Dec 2012
27920 posts

Arbitrage betting, will I get banned?Posted by TheWalrus on 12/25/20 at 11:05 pm
Sports betting has been legal for a couple of months in my state. I’ve been making a pretty good profit through a lot of arbitrage, which is basically betting for a guaranteed profit.
For example, one Sportsbook offers a promotion moneyline at +150 for team A. You can bet on Team B at -125. So you place bets on each side to guarantee a profit. The bets usually have limits, so I’m only making a few dollars per bet.
I’m worried I could get banned for doing this. Is anyone familiar with this topic?

castorinho
Oklahoma Fan
13623 posts
Member since Nov 2010
74847 posts

re: Arbitrage betting, will I get banned?Posted by castorinho on 12/25/20 at 11:15 pm to TheWalrus


wildtigercat93
VCU Fan
Member since Jul 2011
103738 posts

re: Arbitrage betting, will I get banned?Posted by wildtigercat93 on 12/25/20 at 11:23 pm to castorinho


Betting
TheWalrus
LSU Fan
Somewhere
Member since Dec 2012
27920 posts

re: Arbitrage betting, will I get banned?Posted by TheWalrus on 12/25/20 at 11:35 pm to wildtigercat93
I find it kind of enjoyable to try and find opportunities. I’ve made a couple of mistakes that could have cost me a lot but I was able to cash out my mistake right away. My biggest profit was off playing the middle with a money line on one side and a spread on another, made almost $200 with no risk of loss. It just dawned on me that it might be shady and I don’t want to lose the ability to bet recreationally.

wildtigercat93
VCU Fan
Member since Jul 2011
103738 posts

re: Arbitrage betting, will I get banned?Posted by wildtigercat93 on 12/25/20 at 11:39 pm to TheWalrus


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Notro
LSU Fan
Alison Brie's Boobs
Member since Sep 2011
7661 posts

re: Arbitrage betting, will I get banned?Posted by Notro on 12/25/20 at 11:43 pm to TheWalrus


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PeteRose
LSU Fan
Hall of Fame
Member since Aug 2014
12363 posts

re: Arbitrage betting, will I get banned?Posted by PeteRose on 12/26/20 at 7:13 am to TheWalrus
I don’t see what’s the problem. The sportsbook opens itself to this. If you get banned then find a new one. It’s not like breaking up with your gf.
quote:
The bets usually have limits, so I’m only making a few dollars per bet.

I doubt they lose sleep over this. They understand human nature of greed. I guess they intend to give a few crumbs with the expectation that you go wild eventually.

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G2160
Texas A&M Fan
houston
Member since May 2013
1113 posts

re: Arbitrage betting, will I get banned?Posted by G2160 on 12/26/20 at 8:04 am to TheWalrus
quote:
So you place bets on each side to guarantee a profit.

Won’t they make a net 10% (or whatever the juice is) off of you if you do this?

PillPusher
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Gulf Coast
Member since Oct 2009
4143 posts
Online

re: Arbitrage betting, will I get banned?Posted by PillPusher on 12/26/20 at 8:25 am to TheWalrus
They certainly can ban you for it. They can ban you for any reason. But I don’t know how they would find out about it unless both books are owned by the same people.

Bestbank Tiger
Premium Member
Member since Jan 2005
56500 posts

re: Arbitrage betting, will I get banned?Posted by Bestbank Tiger on 12/26/20 at 9:48 am to G2160
quote:
Won’t they make a net 10% (or whatever the juice is) off of you if you do this?

Yes.
You get paid by the bettors who picked the losing side.

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Arbitrage Sports Betting Forum

G2160
Texas A&M Fan
houston
Member since May 2013
1113 posts

re: Arbitrage betting, will I get banned?Posted by G2160 on 12/26/20 at 10:11 am to TheWalrus
quote:
For example, one Sportsbook offers a promotion moneyline at +150 for team A. You can bet on Team B at -125

correct me if i am wrong, but is this:
team A: risking $100 to win $150
team B: risking $125 to win $100
team A win:
+$150*0.9 - $125 = +$10 (to you)
team B win:
+$100*0.9 - $100 = -$10 (to you)


Ingeniero
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2013
10185 posts
Online

re: Arbitrage betting, will I get banned?Posted by Ingeniero on 12/26/20 at 10:22 am to G2160
To calculate if an arbitrage bet is possible, you add the implied probability of the possible outcomes and if it's less than 100% you've got a bet.
In OP's example:
+150 is 2.5 in decimal odds
-125 is 1.8 in decimal odds
(1/2.5)+(1/1.8) = 0.956, or 95.6%.
And to determine how much you should bet on each team you do:
(Total Desired Bet * Outcome Arbitrage)/Total Arbitrage
So ($100 * 0.4)/0.956 = $41.80 on the +150 team
($100 * 0.556)/0.956 = $58.11 on the -125 team.
For a whopping profit of around $4.60


G2160
Texas A&M Fan
houston
Member since May 2013
1113 posts

re: Arbitrage betting, will I get banned?Posted by G2160 on 12/26/20 at 10:39 am to Ingeniero
But don’t you have to factor in paying the vig on the win?

Ingeniero
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2013
10185 posts
Online

re: Arbitrage betting, will I get banned?Posted by Ingeniero on 12/26/20 at 11:03 am to G2160
So sportsbooks, in general, factor in the vig to their odds. It comes into play when you're betting on a single bookie. -110/-110 is the typical 'toss-up' odds, so 1/1.91+1/1.91= 1.047, so the bookie has a 4.7% cut assuming even money on both sides.
When you're finding an arbitrage bet, it's almost never on the same bookie. They wouldn't give you odds that make it so they can possibly lose on an outcome. You're usually betting across separate bookies giving different odds, or the same bookie with some kind of promotional odds. The first one probably won't get you banned, the second one will.

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lepdagod
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2015
1405 posts

re: Arbitrage betting, will I get banned?Posted by lepdagod on 12/26/20 at 11:06 am to G2160
quote:
Won’t they make a net 10% (or whatever the juice is) off of you if you do this?

Yeah he not understanding the house getting their cut twice from him...

re: Arbitrage betting, will I get banned?Posted by Louie T on 12/26/20 at 11:46 am to TheWalrus
If books see that you're constantly picking off rogue or stale #s, they will know what you're doing and ban you if you're betting anything more than a few bucks.

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re: Arbitrage betting, will I get banned?Posted by Louie T on 12/26/20 at 11:47 am to lepdagod
quote:
Yeah he not understanding the house getting their cut twice from him...
It's actually you not understanding what the frick you're talking about.

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go ta hell ole miss
New York Yankees Fan
Member since Jan 2007
9349 posts
Online

re: Arbitrage betting, will I get banned?Posted by go ta hell ole miss on 12/26/20 at 12:21 pm to lepdagod
quote:
Yeah he not understanding the house getting their cut twice from him...

I am not sure you understand.

Replies (0)
TheWalrus
LSU Fan
Somewhere
Member since Dec 2012
27920 posts

re: Arbitrage betting, will I get banned?Posted by TheWalrus on 12/26/20 at 3:18 pm to PillPusher
Yeah I figure they would either give me a warning or make me ineligible for promotions before outright banning me. I mix in some regular bets too.

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pioneerbasketball
Arkansas Fan
Team Bunchie
Member since Oct 2005
104421 posts

re: Arbitrage betting, will I get banned?Posted by pioneerbasketball on 12/26/20 at 4:17 pm to G2160
quote:
correct me if i am wrong, but is this:
team A: risking $100 to win $150
team B: risking $125 to win $100
team A win:
+$150*0.9 - $125 = +$10 (to you)
team B win:
+$100*0.9 - $100 = -$10 (to you)

Reminds me of this...
A man buys a horse for $60. He sells the horse for $70. He then buys the horse back for $80. And he sells the horse again for $90. In the end, how much money did the man make or lose? Or did he break even?

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NBA Betting Types and Odds

Even though basketball is a simple game, it takes time and effort to gain a high level of knowledge and gain an edge over bookmakers with NBA betting.

This article explains the basic rules of basketball, the types of bets you can use, and give an overview of what you need to consider to make money with NBA betting.

NBA Betting: Understanding the Rules

Basketball is played five against five on a court made up of 2 baskets, under which there is an area called the racket. The games are divided into four quarter-times of 10 minutes (12 minutes in NBA).

A player who scores from inside the racket offers 2 points to his team. If the shot is taken from the outside of the racket, then this is worth 3 points. Free throws, awarded after a foul, are worth 1 point.

To score during an active phase of play, a player must continuously bounce the ball. He is not allowed to take more than two steps without a rebound. This is called a 'walk.' This fault also applies if the player jumps and lands on his feet without releasing the ball.

Also, a player does not have the right to resume his dribble after stopping (or to take back the ball after having released it if the latter has not touched anything). It is also forbidden to 'carry' the ball: the hand must be in constant contact with the ball's upper part.

NBA Betting Types and Odds

Money line betting: The NBA betting moneyline is no different from the NFL or baseball betting moneyline. Even if the sport is different, the point is to predict the winner of the game and bet.

Handicap betting: Basketball handicap betting is a slight evolution of moneyline betting. Both teams will be given a positive or negative scoring handicap so that the objectively perceived difference in ability is even.

The team that appears to be superior is given a negative handicap to overcome. The team that seems to be disadvantaged is given a positive handicap treated as a lead from the beginning.

Totals betting: In the NBA betting total market, it doesn't matter which team wins. It is a betting method that predicts whether the total number of scores of both teams will exceed (over) or fall below (under) the bookmaker's expected value.

Quarters and halves: In addition to the basic betting market described above, you can also place bets on the first quarter and the first half of NBA games. Your betting NBA betting odds and options (money line, handicap, total) will remain the same, but you will bet on results in shorter spans.

Outright market: There is little room for mistakes in betting on individual matches, and it is not uncommon for randomness and luck to change the outcome. In contrast, the outright market generally allows you to bet on longer spans, such as the NBA's 82 regular-season games (or more).

How to Bet on NBA Odds

Arbitrage Sports Betting Forum Free

1) Schedule analysis: whether the team is in B2B (when a team played the day before) or not, study the upcoming games to see if the schedule for the team is complicated or not (because in the NBA, the season is long with a lot of matches and sometimes the teams do 'no matches').

Arbitrage Sports Betting Calculator

2) Study the last matches of the teams and their previous confrontations: Watch the game's summary. However, H2H is relatively irrelevant in the NBA, with rosters changing every year and different game circumstances. That can 'reassure' but in no case condition a bet.

3) Compare the two teams' collective statistics: attack, defenses, rebounds, passes, stray balls—you can use them but not everything and anything. The emphasis should above all be on the average number of possession per match (basically knowing if a team prefers the half-court game and goes after 24s to build an attack or if it favors fast play).

5) Inventory of the teams: Note the injured and the unsure, and it is often the longest because sometimes a player is announced on the field or in the stands only 30 minutes before the match. Hence, it's not always easy; it can be the most complicated factor to consider.

6) Use an algorithm that evaluates your analyses in a calculation that allows you to compare the theoretical odds to the odds on the book to see if there is value. Then, select a bet with odds greater than or equal to 1.70.